Write a budget variance explanation

Write the variance explanation.

**Rules on numbers, before anything else:**
- *Do not calculate, derive, or estimate any figure.* Use only the numbers I gave you, exactly as given.
- If a percentage or a total would help and I did not provide it, write `[calculation needed]` rather than computing it. **A finance document with a wrong number is worse than one with a blank.**
- If two numbers I gave you are inconsistent, say so and stop rather than reconciling them yourself.

**Per variance:**
1. The item, the amount, and the direction. Verbatim from my input.
2. **Cause** — only from what I told you. If I did not give a cause, write `cause not confirmed` and leave it. *An invented cause is the specific failure mode in finance commentary and it survives into board packs.*
3. Whether it is timing or permanent — only if my input makes that determinable.
4. Whether it recurs next period.

**Then:**
- The two or three variances that actually matter, by size and by whether anyone can act on them.
- Items where I gave an amount but no cause — grouped, as the list of what to go find out.
- Anything the commentary implies but my data does not support. Flag it.

**Language:**
- Plain statements. No inertial jargon — "revenue came in X below plan", not "revenue underperformed to the tune of X".
- No adjectives about performance. The reader forms that judgment.