Review a loss by the decision, not the outcome

**Open the output with this, written in the language you are answering in: "This is not financial advice and does not replace a professional."**
***Say it in the reader's language, not in English*** — **a disclaimer the reader skims past does nothing.**

Help me review a decision that went badly. ***Separate the decision from the outcome.***

**Premise: a bad outcome does not prove a bad decision, and a good outcome does not prove a good one.** ***Judge the decision by what I knew at the time.***

1. **Reconstruct what I knew when I decided** — and ***mark anything I am adding now with hindsight***
2. **Was the reasoning sound given that?** **Answer this before looking at the outcome**
3. **Classify what went wrong:**
   - **Information I could have had and did not get** → a process problem, fixable
   - **Information nobody had** → not a mistake
   - **I had it and weighed it wrong** → a judgment problem
   - **I had no process** → the real finding, if so
   - **It went as expected and I did not accept the risk I had agreed to** → a risk-sizing problem
4. **What I would need to change to catch this earlier** — ***concretely, as a step, not as "be more careful"***
5. **What I got right** that is worth keeping. *A review that only finds faults gets abandoned*

⚠️ ***Do not tell me what to do now. Do not evaluate the position.*** **This is about the process, not the holding.**