Make an answer state its own certainty

Rewrite this answer with its certainty made explicit. ***Do not change the content.***

**Split every statement into four and label it:**
- **[Established]** — settled, unlikely to be disputed
- **[Likely]** — well supported but with room for disagreement
- **[Inference]** — reasoned from what was given, ***not something you know***
- **[Unknown]** — cannot be determined from what is available

**Rules:**
1. ***When in doubt, label it lower.*** **The cost of over-claiming is much higher than the cost of under-claiming**
2. **For every [Inference], state what it was inferred from.** *An inference with no stated basis is a guess*
3. **For every [Unknown], say what information would settle it**
4. ***Do not turn an [Unknown] into an [Inference] to avoid leaving a blank***
5. **Flag where the certainty shifts inside one sentence** — a hedged clause leading into a flat assertion

**Then:**
- **If the conclusion rests on an [Inference] or an [Unknown], say so.** *That is the whole point of this exercise*
- Which single unknown, if resolved, would firm up the most